Europe could save more than €10.6 billion in electricity grid investment by making smarter use of existing grid capacity as electric vehicle uptake grows according to modelling conducted by Siemens. The study was commissioned jointly by EIT Urban Mobility, ChargeUp Europe and ACEA and it estimates that €24.7 billion in electricity distribution grid investment would be required by 2030 to accommodate projected electric vehicle (EV) growth. Under its intelligent EV load management scenario, this requirement could drop to around €14.1 billion.

Link to the key results published

The study, Electricity Grids in Europe, assesses how the projected uptake of battery electric passenger cars and light duty vehicles could affect electricity distribution grids across the EU27 and three EEA countries. Based on six urban archetypes, the model was applied across 64 urban centres to estimate how investment, digitalisation and flexibility can prepare Europe’s electricity networks for the transition to zero emission mobility in the most efficient and cost-effective way.

The study examines the role of EV Load Management meaning the near-real-time control of electric vehicle charging power to prevent grid overload during periods of peak electricity demand,  including the measurement and communications infrastructure required for this purpose. Combined with grid digitalisation, smart charging allows electricity networks to make better use of existing capacity, reducing reinforcement needs while supporting the reliable integration of millions of electric vehicles. However, it does not remove the need for physical grid reinforcement.

Electric vehicle adoption is expected to accelerate rapidly over the coming years. By 2030, according to Siemens ramp-up model, battery electric vehicles are projected to account for 27.3% of Sweden’s passenger car fleet, 15.7% in Germany, 4.6% in Italy, 4.5% in Spain and 2.5% in Poland, representing growth of between 3.4 and 5.3 times compared with 2024 levels. The electrification of commercial transport is expected to gather pace even faster in several markets. For light duty vehicles, battery electric vehicles (BEV) market share is projected to reach 22.7% in Sweden, 9.1% in Germany and 5.9% in Poland, with Poland’s electric van fleet expected to grow almost tenfold over the period. As logistics operators increasingly electrify their fleets to meet climate targets and urban air quality objectives, ensuring electricity grids can support depot and commercial vehicle charging will become increasingly important.

The analysis also indicates that where and when vehicles charge has a significant effect on local grid demand. By modelling residential, workplace, public, en route and depot charging separately, the study shows that around 55–62% of EV owners in the representative cities are expected to have access to residential charging by 2030, underscoring the growing importance of low voltage distribution grids in Europe’s electrification. This is a model assumption based on housing data and expected EV adoption, with the range reflecting differences across Stockholm, Munich, Barcelona, Rome, Kiel and Kraków. The finding reinforces the importance of coordinating charging infrastructure deployment with local grid planning.

Among the study’s key findings:

• EV growth will put pressure on electricity distribution grids across Europe. In the 64 urban centres analysed, BEV numbers are projected to grow 3.8 times by 2030 and every centre would require grid reinforcement to accommodate this growth.
• The biggest pressure is on the low voltage grid: 77.7% of physical grid reinforcement investment is needed at low voltage, driven largely by residential EV charging.
• Grid investment requirements vary significantly across Europe. Central Europe accounts for the largest share of investment needs, followed by the Nordic Countries, Eastern Europe and Southern Europe.
• Among the 64 cities analysed, all faced substantial investment requirements. Although larger metropolitan areas require the greatest levels of investment, every city analysed will require reinforcement of its electricity distribution grid to accommodate growing EV demand.
• Cities with lower access to private home charging are expected to rely more heavily on public charging infrastructure, reinforcing the need to coordinate charging infrastructure deployment with electricity network planning.
• Without EV load management, the study estimates €24.7 billion in grid reinforcement needed by 2030. With EV load management, this falls to €14.1 billion, avoiding €10.6 billion in investment.
• EV load management and physical grid reinforcement are complementary measures. Even under the load-management scenario, physical upgrades remain necessary across every European region included in the analysis.

Dr Adriana Diaz, Innovation Director at EIT Urban Mobility, said:

“Scaling electric mobility is not solely a matter of increasing the number of electric vehicles on the road or expanding charging infrastructure. Charging deployment must respond to local mobility patterns and develop alongside grid capacity, making smarter use of existing networks while directing investment where it is most needed. Europe needs a coordinated approach across mobility, energy and technology so that the transition can happen faster, more fairly and at lower cost.”

Lucie Mattera, Secretary General at ChargeUp Europe, said:

“The rollout of charging infrastructure and electricity networks must go hand in hand. The picture is dual. Grid upgrades are an absolute prerequisite for BEV uptake and EV charging deployment at scale; simultaneously, there is very significant cost saving potential from grid digitalisation and load management to keep grid investment needs at a lower level.”

Sigrid de Vries, Director General at ACEA, said:

“Europe’s automotive industry is investing massively in the transition to electric mobility, but vehicles are only one part of the equation. Electricity grids need to keep pace with growing EV uptake, particularly at local level where charging demand will increasingly be felt. This study shows that smarter charging can significantly reduce the investment required, but only if we move from smart-charging capability on paper to solutions that actually work in practice. Europe now needs targeted grid investment, greater visibility of local capacity and the right market framework to unlock the flexibility that electric vehicles can offer.”

Dr. Ralf Blumenthal, SVP Europe, Siemens Grid Software, said:

“Electric mobility and grid modernisation must advance together. Digital grid technologies and smart charging improve grid performance and enable non-wire solutions that maximise existing infrastructure for millions of electric vehicles. Investing in smarter grids today will help Europe build a more resilient, sustainable and cost-effective energy system for the future.”